Kemi Badenoch Poll Lead: Conservatives Eight Points Ahead of Reform UK as Labour Stays on Top
Kemi Badenoch has received the strongest polling boost of her leadership so far, after a new Lord Ashcroft survey put the Conservatives eight points ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The Kemi Badenoch poll lead is the clearest sign yet that the contest on the right of British politics is tightening, even though Labour remains in front.
The survey, carried out between Thursday 29 October and Monday 2 November 2026 among 5,253 adults, puts Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent and Reform UK on 18 per cent. The gap between the Tories and Reform has widened from three points a month ago to eight points now, according to the Daily Mail, which reported the findings on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Quick Reference Summary Table
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Pollster | Lord Ashcroft Polls |
| Fieldwork | Thursday 29 October – Monday 2 November 2026 |
| Sample | 5,253 adults |
| Labour | 31% (+3 on the previous Ashcroft poll) |
| Conservatives | 26% (+4) |
| Reform UK | 18% (-1) |
| Green Party | 10% (-4) |
| Liberal Democrats | 7% (-1) |
| SNP | 3% |
| Plaid Cymru | 1% |
| Other parties | 4% |
| Conservative lead over Reform UK | 8 points (was 3 points in September) |
| Badenoch net job rating | +3 (more voters say she is doing a good job than a bad one) |
| Burnham net job rating | +15 |
| Farage net job rating | -42 |
| Reported | Sunday 8 November 2026, Daily Mail; Lord Ashcroft’s own account first published in the Mail on Sunday |
Eight Points Clear: What the Ashcroft Numbers Actually Say
The headline of the Kemi Badenoch poll lead is the eight-point margin over Reform UK, the widest the Conservatives have enjoyed over Farage’s party in this polling series. A month earlier, the same pollster had the Tories on 22 per cent and Reform on 19 per cent, a gap of just three points. The latest figures show the Conservatives up four points to 26 per cent while Reform slipped one point to 18 per cent.
Labour also gained in the survey, rising three points to 31 per cent, so Badenoch has not overtaken the governing party. The Greens fell four points to 10 per cent and the Liberal Democrats slipped one point to 7 per cent, which means the movement in this poll was concentrated in the two main parties at the expense of the smaller ones.
Lord Ashcroft himself argues that the combined support for Labour and the Conservatives has been creeping up since the party conference season, while Reform and the Greens fall back. His article, first published in the Mail on Sunday, says his survey “puts Nigel Farage’s once insurgent party firmly in third place”. That reading, if repeated by other pollsters, would mark a sharp change from a year in which Reform led most national surveys.
A Five-Point Swing in a Month — and Why the Method Matters
The Ashcroft survey asks people how likely they think they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would pick in an imaginary contest tomorrow. Ashcroft says that difference matters, because it captures voters who are leaning back towards a party rather than those making a snap choice. Readers should keep that in mind when comparing his numbers with other polls.
The swing in the Conservative lead over Reform — from three points to eight — is the largest monthly move in this series. It follows a Budget from Chancellor John Healey that the Tories attacked, and a Conservative conference at which Badenoch promised to scrap inheritance tax on family homes. Voters in Ashcroft’s focus groups mentioned that inheritance tax pledge with approval, and described Badenoch as strong, direct, principled and articulate, with “better energy” than her recent predecessors.
Badenoch’s Personal Ratings Climb While Farage Slides
The Kemi Badenoch poll lead is matched by an improvement in her personal standing. In the Ashcroft survey, more voters say Badenoch is doing a good job than a bad one, giving her a net rating of +3. Prime Minister Andy Burnham scores +15 on the same measure, while Nigel Farage records -42. Ashcroft notes that both Burnham and Badenoch now have more voters saying they are doing a good job than a bad one, calling it a startling reversal of recent history for a prime minister and an opposition leader.
Farage’s slide is tied, in Ashcroft’s account, to doubts about Reform itself. His article says “suspicions over dodgy donations, unsavoury activists, and questions over seriousness and competence have combined to stall Reform’s momentum”. He also reports hearing former enthusiasts complain that Farage “has become part of the establishment, both financially and politically”, with some of that group now looking towards Restore and its leader Rupert Lowe.
That context matters because Farage remains a major figure in the news in his own right. Nigel Farage’s Telegraph column ended under the paper’s new owner Axel Springer, and his name was the most searched term in the United Kingdom earlier on Sunday 8 November as coverage of that exit continued.
Other Polls Tell a Tighter Story
The Ashcroft figures are the most favourable to the Conservatives of any recent survey, and other pollsters paint a closer contest. Opinium’s latest poll for the Observer, based on fieldwork between 4 and 6 November 2026 among 2,050 adults, puts Labour on 28 per cent, Reform UK on 21 per cent and the Conservatives unchanged on 20 per cent. In that survey Badenoch’s net approval slips to -1, while Burnham remains the only major leader with a positive rating, at +5.
A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News, carried out on 1–2 November, put Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and Reform UK on 21 per cent. The wider poll-of-polls average still places the Conservatives third, behind Labour and Reform. The honest reading is that the Tories are recovering ground, but whether they have genuinely moved ahead of Reform depends on which pollster you trust.
That caution is built into the numbers themselves. Mark Pack’s polling scorecard notes that a change of a couple of points between samples may be statistical noise rather than a real shift in support. A single survey, however striking, is not proof of a lasting realignment.
Badenoch Turns the Attack on Burnham’s EU Reset
Badenoch is using the weekend to step up her attack on Burnham’s plan for closer ties with the European Union. According to the Daily Mail, she argues that the Prime Minister’s EU reset will cost each working family £1,220, pointing to a leaked draft agreement due to be signed on 20 November under which Britain would help “reduce economic and social disparities between regions of the EU” at a cost of £23 billion over ten years.
The attack lands in a week when the EU relationship has dominated Westminster. John Healey’s first Budget was delivered against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs, and the government’s Erasmus+ return drew Conservative criticism after it was linked to Remembrance Sunday. Badenoch’s team will hope the polling boost gives her attacks on the reset more weight with voters who are still deciding whether to return to the Conservatives.
What the Poll Lead Does Not Change for the Conservatives
For all the encouragement in the Kemi Badenoch poll lead, the Conservatives remain second, five points behind Labour, and a long way from the position they held before the 2024 general election. Ashcroft himself warns that it is too early to declare the political realignment of the last decade cancelled, and notes that many voters who are paying attention have not forgotten what they remember as the chaos of the Johnson-Truss era.
His focus groups found former Tory voters still bitter about how that period ended, with one describing the party as “like an ex-girlfriend at the minute” — not yet ready to recommit. Two in five of the people who like both the Conservatives and Badenoch also like Reform and Farage, and within that group Reform leads the Tories by 55 per cent to 35 per cent. Winning those voters back, rather than simply holding them, is the test Badenoch still faces.
Burnham’s position also limits what the poll means. He runs 16 points ahead of Labour where his predecessor ran 11 points behind, according to Ashcroft’s analysis, and he leads Badenoch 41 per cent to 22 per cent as the public’s preferred prime minister in the Opinium survey. A Conservative recovery that leaves Labour five points clear is a step forward, not a lead.
The Road to the Next Election: Why One Poll Is Not a Comeback
No general election is expected soon, and Ashcroft found little appetite for an early contest — only a quarter of voters want one as soon as practically possible. Labour supporters are even less keen, partly because they think a later date helps their party, but mostly because they want Burnham to deliver something tangible and improve their lives.
That gives Badenoch time, but it also gives her a problem: time allows the recovery to fade as easily as it allows it to build. The Budget debate, the EU summit on 20 November and the next round of polling will each test whether the eight-point lead over Reform is the start of a trend or a single favourable survey. For now, the Kemi Badenoch poll lead is real, it is verified, and it is the best news the Conservative leader has had in months — but it is not yet a comeback.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Lord Ashcroft poll say?
Labour leads on 31 per cent, followed by the Conservatives on 26 per cent and Reform UK on 18 per cent, with the Greens on 10 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 7 per cent. Fieldwork ran from 29 October to 2 November 2026 among 5,253 adults.
How big is the Conservative lead over Reform UK?
Eight points — the Conservatives on 26 per cent against Reform UK on 18 per cent. A month earlier the gap was three points, with the Tories on 22 per cent and Reform on 19 per cent.
Is Kemi Badenoch ahead of Andy Burnham?
No. Labour remains five points ahead of the Conservatives in this poll, and Burnham leads Badenoch 41 per cent to 22 per cent as preferred prime minister in the Opinium survey. Badenoch’s advance is over Reform UK, not over Labour.
Do other polls agree with the Ashcroft survey?
Only partly. Opinium puts the Conservatives third on 20 per cent, behind Reform on 21 per cent, while YouGov has the Tories on 24 per cent, ahead of Reform on 21 per cent. The Ashcroft poll is the most favourable to the Conservatives of the recent surveys.
Why does the Ashcroft poll differ from other polls?
Ashcroft asks voters how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would choose in an imaginary contest tomorrow. That method tends to capture voters leaning back towards a party, and it can produce different results from standard voting-intention questions.
Myth-Busting: What the Poll Lead Does and Does Not Mean
Myth: The Conservatives are now leading the polls. Reality: Labour leads the Ashcroft survey by five points, on 31 per cent against the Conservatives’ 26 per cent. Badenoch’s lead is over Reform UK, not over the governing party.
Myth: Reform UK is finished. Reality: Reform stands at 18 per cent in the Ashcroft poll and 21 per cent in Opinium’s latest survey, and it still leads the Conservatives in some polls. The party has lost momentum, but it remains the second or third party in every recent survey.
Myth: One poll proves the Conservatives have recovered. Reality: Polls move within margins of error, and other surveys place the Tories behind Reform. A single favourable survey is evidence of movement, not proof of a lasting recovery.
